The last few months have seen substantial advances in the China/India EB2 cutoff dates. Many people are puzzled and can’t understand why cutoff dates are suddenly moving forward after so many years of slow movement. The answer is demand. We published an article on the ImmInfo site some time back that explains the overall mechanics of cutoff date movement.

The current rapid movement is the result of substantially lower than expected demand. For visa cutoff date purposes, demand is shown in two ways: First, there are the cases at the National Visa Center (NVC) that have been classified as "documentarily complete." Second, there are the monthly requests for immigrant visas made by the USCIS service centers as they approve I-485 applications for adjustment of status.

Historically, the NVC cases represent only about 10% of the overall potential demand. The remaining 90% comes from the USCIS. From what we have been able to gather, the USCIS is not requesting large numbers of EB2 immigrant visas. This could be because they simply don't have files in their inventory, or it could be that they are not processing cases to completion at anything close to the rate necessary to assure full usage of the immigrant visa quota for this year.

What we do know is that "demand" has been unusually low and is likely to remain this way for at least the next few months. During this time, we can expect to see China/India EB2 cutoff dates continue to advance at a rapid rate. Unless something changes soon, we can expect to see China/India EB2 become current within a few months.

Please note that if this happens, it will not likely remain "current" for very long. In all probability, we will see this cutoff date retrogress, most likely back to somewhere in 2009, when the retrogression occurs later this year.

For people who have filed for adjustment of status, their cases will remain on file, pending a final decision, until their priority dates become "current" again.