We have been providing bi-weekly updates on the progress of the proposed CIR legislation. This will be our last such update unless there is a significant development. As things stand today, CIR is essentially dead.

Neither party is committed to pushing a new immigration bill through Congress. While there are many immigration issues that have widespread support, the concept of "comprehensive" immigration reform does not have that much support.

There is a new wild card in the deck, the new Arizona immigration legislation. Initially, this legislation seemed to light a fire in Washington to "do something" about immigration. That fire is slowing burning out. Recent polling shows that about three fourths of all voters support the Arizona law. While there may be legitimate arguments raised as to the validity of that polling data, the fact remains that support for amnesty is at an all time low.

The Arizona law may have even more serious repercussions for CIR legislation. Two years ago, Arizona passed legislation making it unlawful to hire illegal aliens. A company caught doing so twice would lose its right to do business in the state. The initial reaction to that legislation was much like the reaction to the latest law. Many talking heads on cable television assured their viewers that the law would be held unconstitutional as soon as it was challenged in the courts. When the case went to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, widely regarded as the most liberal circuit in the country, it was upheld without dissent.

In the wake of the passage of that earlier law, the illegal alien population in Arizona declined significantly. Some experts estimate that as many as two-thirds of the illegals who had been living in Arizona prior to the enactment of the employer penalty law left either shortly before or immediately after it took effect.

So what does this have to do with CIR? The principal argument in favor of granting an amnesty is that it will be next to impossible to round up and deport 12 million illegal aliens. If the Arizona experiment shows that illegals will leave voluntarily if the government cracks down on employers and also begins verifying lawful status when people are stopped for traffic violations, that argument no longer works.

No matter what, the Arizona legislation is going to change the amnesty debate significantly. Those who were willing to hold their noses and vote for amnesty in order to get control of the border may be far less likely to do so now.

It is highly unlikely that anything like either of the two Arizona laws will get enacted by Congress. What is far more likely to happen is that individual states will begin enacting similar laws.

Unless and until the amnesty issue is resolved, however, the Democrats are going to continue to accede to the wishes of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and not allow any immigration legislation to be considered.