Last September, the USCIS released a report that purported to describe the content and extent of the adjustment of status backlog. In January, the Department of State's Visa Office (VO) released a report that showed the backlog of the National Visa Center. Finally, in February, VO began releasing monthly reports that show the known backlog of employment based applications, based on the reports from the USCIS and the NVC. Many people misunderstand what these reports actually show and, as a result, misinterpret the data.

The first thing that you need to understand is that this information is woefully incomplete. This is not the fault of VO, but rather a problem with USCIS reporting. The USCIS does not keep very accurate records and they are utterly unable to tell anyone how many applications for adjustment of status are pending before them, much less the makeup of that pool.

It is clear that the actual number of employment based applications presently pending is far greater than the numbers that are being reported. Unfortunately, people who are desperate for information have been taking this data and trying to make sense of it. The problem is that it is not possible to make sense of it. It is incomplete and invalid. This is a classic example of "garbage in, garbage out."

So, is any of the reported data valid? The NVC backlog data is very accurate. Unfortunately, this represents less than 15% of all employment based applicants. The USCIS data is both incomplete and inaccurate. The USCIS has not counted all of the cases pending before that agency, much less the priority dates, preference categories, and countries of charge for each application.

Many applicants have poured over the changes in the numbers from month to month, trying to discern meaningful patterns. Sadly, this is not possible because the data is so bad. In January, to its horror, the VO discovered that two-thirds of the requests for EB3 visa numbers were coming from previously unknown and unreported USCIS district office cases. Up until requests were made for visas, VO had no idea that those cases even existed.

The bottom line is that the data is bad because the USCIS has never bothered to conduct an accurate census of their cases. Unless and until they do this, it is going to stay bad.