Not likely. The President spoke this morning about the need to "fix our broken immigration system." The problem is that his involvement at this time is simply too little, too late. Had he stepped up in a big way last December or January, he might have made a difference. At that time, there were some Republican senators who were willing to help push Comprehensive Immigration Reform (CIIR) through. They wanted the President to step up and provide both leadership and political cover for them. He didn't do this.

His current efforts appear to be nothing more than a cynical attempt to persuade Hispanic voters that he really hasn't reneged on his campaign promise to bring up CIR for a vote in Congress during his first year in office. No one in Washington seriously believes that this legislation can be enacted right now. It is doubtful that even a majority of Democrats would be willing to vote for it. Without strong bipartisan support, CIR is not going to happen and there is very little support - bipartisan or otherwise - for it right now.
The mood of the public has changed over the last year. An amnesty might have been marginally acceptable last year. This year, any member of Congress voting in favor of amnesty would likely be defeated in the November elections.

The Senate Majority Leader announced last month that he was taking CIR off the Senate calendar and that they would try to pass immigration legislation on a piecemeal basis. That pretty much signaled the death of CIR. The good news is that with the amnesty issue out of the way, it is now possible to pass other, less controversial legislation.

The two bills named by Senator Reid (the DREAM Act and AgJobs) are both quite controversial in their own right and are by no means certain to be passed. In my opinion, the odds are against both of them passing. As is discussed in another article in this month's newsletter, perhaps the most likely candidate for passage is a visa recapture bill.